Autumn has a way of shaking things up, not just with falling leaves and cooler nights, but in the financial markets too. Some investors swear by the “Autumn Effect,” a theory from economics and finance professor Dick Baur suggesting gold has a seasonal tendency to shine a little brighter in the fall. With gold already reaching record highs in 2025, due to inflation worries, central bank buying, and global uncertainty, this year’s autumn could be especially interesting. So is the seasonal boost just a market myth, or could it give the gold rally even more fuel? We’ve taken a closer look.

What is the “Autumn Effect?”

Stacks of gold coins with market value arrow going up.

The “Autumn Effect” refers to a seasonal tendency for gold prices to rise during the autumn months. The idea rests on patterns like:

  • Investors shifting into safe-haven assets after summer.
  • Geopolitical and macroeconomic risks that often heighten in fall.
  • Historical trends showing demand for physical and paper gold picking up before the end-of-year period.

Professor Baur’s research, titled “The Seasonality of Gold – The Autumn Effect” analyzed gold returns for each month from 1980 to 2010. It found that September and November are the only months with “positive and statistically significant gold price changes.”

Is It Real? Here’s What We Found.

Gold bars with stock market chart.

We compiled the monthly gold prices (in USD) for each month since 2000 to see how the “Autumn Effect” theory has played out in recent years. We did not find September and November to be standout months for high gold prices on their own. However, we did find that the annual price of gold spiked more often during the 4-month period of September to December in 14 of the last 25 calendar years compared to the periods of January to April (7 years) and May to August (4 years) to date.

Gold Price Trends

Gold price index.

This year, gold has surged in price, up 26% in the first half of 2025, driven by a weaker dollar, geopolitical instability, and continued investor demand, according to the World Gold Council. Key analysts and institutions expect the price of gold to rise in the near to mid-term due to factors like recession fears and Fed uncertainty that tend to heighten gold’s safe-haven role in the investment landscape.

Gold prices already hit an all-time high price of $3,673.95/oz in September, and have gained 38% so far this year. (Gold Price Forecast) What’s more, many analysts think gold still has plenty of room to climb. Goldman Sachs forecasts prices holding near $3,700 this year, with the possibility of prices soaring to $5,000 if economic risks pile up. ANZ expects gold to hit around $3,800–$4,000 by mid-2026, while other forecasts suggest steady growth close to $4,000 in 2026. In short, most experts agree the rally isn’t over, and gold could keep shining well into 2026 and beyond.

The Bottom Line

Autumn leaves falling

The “Autumn Effect” may serve as a cue for gold’s seasonal strength, but it’s not a guaranteed pattern. As investment advisors always say, diversification is key, especially during uncertain times. Of course, here at Noble Metal Refining, we believe that gold is a great way to diversify your holdings!  

With the current outlook, and the potential for an “Autumn Effect” rise in prices, this may be the ideal time of year to get your scrap collected and ready to send to Noble. We’ll always give you an excellent valuation, based on current spot gold pricing, with the option to receive payment for your scrap in physical gold bullion products. To estimate the value of your gold scrap materials, try out our Karat Gold Calculator today!